[Special Contribution] “Tourism × Carbon Neutrality” — The Challenges Facing the Tourism Sector

1. The Storm of “Carbon Neutrality”—The Impact of the Glasgow Declaration

The issue of so-called global warming began with the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was launched following the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Earth Summit). To date, 26 conferences have been held to discuss the matter.Several of these have served as landmark conferences for establishing international frameworks for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Notable examples include COP3 (1997), where the legally binding “Kyoto Protocol”—setting reduction targets for developed nations—was adopted, and COP21 (2015), where the “Paris Agreement”—the successor to the Kyoto Protocol and a framework for emissions reductions by all nations from 2020 onward—was agreed upon.

The tourism sector must pay close attention to COP26 in 2021. This is because the “Glasgow Declaration – Climate Action in Tourism”*1 was announced at this conference, setting an ambitious goal to commit to strong action to halve carbon dioxide emissions in the tourism sector over the next decade and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.In recent years, the tourism industry has been called upon to pursue “sustainable tourism development,” and travelers’ environmental awareness has surged significantly, both domestically and internationally. Furthermore, originating in Sweden, the concept of “flight shame”—the idea that air travel should be avoided as much as possible—has even emerged. Against this backdrop, it seems the Glasgow Declaration has been received with great favor by the public.

However, as an author specializing in transportation studies and holding a Ph.D. in engineering, when I first heard about the Glasgow Declaration, I couldn’t help but groan. Setting aside the “net-zero emissions by 2050” goal—which might be achievable if some groundbreaking new mobility or energy technologies were to emerge—I felt that achieving a “50% reduction in emissions over the next 10 years” based on current technology would be extremely difficult.It appears that France and Spain are leading the Glasgow Declaration. However, according to the Annual Report of the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy*2, France can cover 90% of its electricity mix with nuclear and renewable energy, and Spain can cover 60%, making the goal more feasible for them. My honest reaction was, “That’s unfair. They’ve got us!”

So, what should Japan’s tourism sector do? I am currently affiliated with a higher education institution that describes itself as “scientifically studying tourism.” Since taking up my post in FY 2011, I have been acutely aware of the challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions—particularly carbon dioxide—caused by the tourism sector, and I have raised this issue with students in my tourism planning lectures. Taking this post as an opportunity, I would like to reorganize my own thoughts and reconsider what we can do.

2. Analyzing Energy Use in Japan’s Tourism Sector

Since national industrial statistics do not treat tourism as a separate sector, statistical values such as production value, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions must be calculated by summing the contributions of tourism to each sector.For example, Shimizu and In*3 estimated carbon dioxide emissions from the tourism industries of Japan and South Korea as of 2010 using input-output tables, greenhouse gas emission intensity (per unit of production value), and tourism consumption statistics surveys.They show that carbon dioxide emissions from Japan’s tourism sector account for 5.64% of all industrial sectors—twice as much as its 2.88% share of production value—and that within the tourism sector, the transportation sector’s contribution is relatively high. It is believed that this structure has not changed significantly as of 2022.

Here, we would like to provide an overview of Japan’s energy usage based on the aforementioned annual report by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy.Regarding primary energy supply, the level in FY 2020 was approximately 78% of the peak recorded in FY 2004, indicating a steady downward trend. Of this total, fossil fuel sources—including oil, coal, and natural gas—account for about 74%. Nuclear power, which accounted for more than 10% prior to the Great East Japan Earthquake, now stands at 1.8%, while renewable energy (excluding hydropower) accounts for less than 10%. This presents a picture that is entirely different from that of France and Spain mentioned earlier.Under current conditions, it is unlikely that the share of renewable energy will expand significantly in the short term, meaning that increased energy consumption will almost directly lead to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions.Sixty-seven percent of primary energy supply is used for final energy consumption, with 45.6% of final energy consumption accounted for by the industrial sector (primary and secondary industries), 22.3% by the transportation sector, and 16.3% by the commercial and other sectors (tertiary industries excluding transportation and energy conversion).As a long-term trend since the first oil crisis, the share of the industrial sector has declined due to improved energy efficiency and changes in industrial structure, while the shares of the transportation sector—which is closely linked to tourism—and the commercial and other sectors have increased.

Compared to the commercial and other sectors—such as hotels, inns, and restaurants—where energy efficiency can be achieved through measures like centralized energy supply, the transportation sector requires improvements in the energy efficiency of individual vehicles, making significant reductions in energy consumption relatively difficult. Therefore, it is important to examine the current situation in the transportation sector.As of FY 2020, 43.6% of the transport sector’s final energy consumption was attributable to the passenger transport segment, of which private passenger cars accounted for 83.7%. Regarding energy sources in the passenger transport segment, 79.2% was gasoline and 7.4% was diesel, indicating that fossil-based energy sources still account for the overwhelming majority.

3. Overview of Recent Domestic Tourism Flows

The “National Survey on Net Inter-City Passenger Flow”*4, conducted every five years by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, publishes aggregated data on the origins and destinations of inter-city travel across prefectural boundaries, as well as the modes of transportation and purposes of travel. The latest results currently available are from FY 2015. Although the characteristics of inter-city travel are believed to have changed significantly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, we believe this data remains a valuable reference when considering the period from 2025 onward, when travel patterns may return to a state somewhat closer to pre-pandemic levels.

Passenger traffic in FY 2015 totaled approximately 1.8 billion people, representing a 10% increase from FY 2010. Of this total, passenger cars and similar vehicles accounted for approximately 1.34 billion people (about 75%), while rail accounted for 17.3% and air travel for 5.0%.Travel for tourism purposes accounted for 32.3% of weekday trips and 52.5% of weekend trips (weddings, funerals, and visits to relatives are classified as personal travel and are not included in tourism figures), indicating that tourism plays a significant role in long-distance domestic travel.

Regarding passenger traffic by distance between origin and destination, 44% of trips are between 100 and 200 km, and 20% are under 100 km, indicating that short-distance travel dominates (Figure 1).Regarding the mode share by distance range, the share of passenger cars and similar vehicles increases as distances decrease; for distances under 200 km, approximately 90% are passenger cars, and for holiday travel for tourism purposes, 84.7% are passenger cars (Figure 2). This highlights the prominent role of passenger cars in inter-city travel.

According to the "Survey on Travel and Tourism Consumption Trends"*5 conducted by the Japan Tourism Agency, while the share of private cars and similar vehicles for tourism and recreational purposes had been on a downward trend prior to the pandemic, it has shown a resurgence since then.In 2021, 75% of day trips and 69% of overnight trips were made by private cars and similar vehicles (Figure 3). As with the aforementioned National Trunk Passenger Net Flow Survey, this demonstrates that automobile use is dominant in domestic travel for tourism purposes.

Regarding the use of domestic trunk transportation by inbound tourists, the aforementioned National Trunk Passenger Net Flow Survey reported data for the Tokyo–Chukyo, Kinki, Hiroshima, and Fukuoka routes, where rail, express buses, and air travel are available. A notable characteristic is that the share of (inexpensive) express buses is higher compared to that of Japanese travelers. It is possible that this is influenced by the fact that the “Nozomi” bullet trains cannot be used with the Japan Rail Pass for inbound tourists.

4. Understanding Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Mode of Transportation

According to a report by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism*6, the carbon dioxide emissions per passenger-kilometer (emission factor) by mode of transportation in FY 2020 were 28 g/passenger-kilometer for rail, compared to 109 g/passenger-kilometer for buses, 133 g/passenger-kilometer for air travel, and 131 g/passenger-kilometer for private passenger cars (Figure 4).In FY 2020, the number of passengers per service was low due to the impact of COVID-19, resulting in a significant deterioration in emissions for rail, bus, and air travel compared to FY 2019. However, if transportation demand returns to pre-COVID levels in the future, it is reasonable to assume that future emission factors will be equivalent to those of FY 2019.Furthermore, considering that private passenger cars emitted 169 g/passenger-kilometer in FY2010, the effects of the spread of hybrid vehicles and the introduction of electric vehicles (albeit in small numbers) over the past decade appear to have been significant.According to the previous National Trunk Passenger Net Flow Survey, the average travel distance by mode of transportation in FY 2015 was 1,204 km for air travel, 362 km for rail, 265 km for trunk buses, and 167 km for passenger cars and other vehicles. Assuming these figures remained unchanged in FY 2019, carbon dioxide emissions per trip are estimated to be 118 kg for air travel,rail at 6 kg, buses at 15 kg, and private passenger cars at 22 kg.

5. What the Tourism Sector (Particularly the Passenger Transport Sector) Should Consider Regarding Carbon Neutrality

Thus far, we have examined the status of energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in the tourism sector based on several surveys. In summary, since the use of private cars—which generate relatively high carbon dioxide emissions—dominates the transportation essential for tourism activities, the structure of the sector is such that even if tourism destinations, such as accommodation facilities, actively pursue a transition to renewable energy, these efforts could be undermined by the transportation component.As tourism in nearby suburban areas increases—as exemplified by “micro-tourism,” a buzzword during the COVID-19 era—the use of private cars is likely to become even more prevalent. Furthermore, the emissions from international air travel have not actually been included in the above discussion.Because international flights cover long distances, carbon dioxide emissions per trip approach one ton. As an island nation, Japan bears significant responsibility for the unaccounted-for carbon dioxide emissions from international flights, given that—with the exception of South Korea—most inbound tourists enter the country by air.

Regarding automotive technology, you are likely aware that research and development of electric vehicles is advancing worldwide. While it is true that they do not emit carbon dioxide while driving, the source of the energy used to charge them is a problem.The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s New Era Automotive Strategy Council*7 indicates that in Japan, as of 2015, the carbon dioxide emission intensity for gasoline vehicles was 132 g/km, while that for hybrid vehicles was 69 g/km—a significant reduction. However, the figure for electric vehicles was 59 g/km, which is not much different from that of hybrid vehicles.In contrast, France benefits from the widespread use of nuclear power and renewable energy, resulting in a figure of 5 g/km. This serves as a stark reminder that efforts to increase the use of renewable energy and nuclear power are essential.

Regarding aviation, while efforts toward electrification have begun, it is extremely unclear when they will be put into practical use. Consequently, the industry is gradually introducing a new fuel called Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).SAF is a fuel derived from biomass, waste, or waste oil. Although its combustion emits carbon dioxide, it is considered more sustainable than jet fuel—which releases new carbon from underground into the atmosphere—because if plants sequester this carbon for growth, it does not increase the amount of carbon in the atmosphere.Mr. Wolff, Head of the Mobility Sector at the World Economic Forum (WEF), discussed a scenario for SAF adoption in Europe during the Pre-Stocktaking Webinar*8 for the 2021 ICAO Stocktaking held by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in 2021. He stated that SAF could account for 10% of all jet fuel by 2030 and 75% by 2050.However, this scenario relies heavily on production technologies still under development, and there is undeniable uncertainty regarding costs and the amount of energy required for production. In Japan as well, activity involving diverse stakeholders is gaining momentum: domestically produced SAF was used on scheduled flights by JAL and ANA in 2021, and the two airlines collaborated to draft a joint report on SAF.Japan has also set a target of increasing the share of SAF to 10% by 2030, and the key challenge will be determining the extent to which this can be met with domestically produced SAF while keeping costs down. Looking toward 2050, the critical factor will be when technology can be developed to efficiently produce SAF from the atmosphere, a resource with virtually unlimited reserves.

In summary, considering the current situation of Japan’s automotive and aviation sectors, it seems unlikely that the optimistic scenario of halving carbon dioxide emissions in the tourism sector by 2030 through the adoption of electrification technology alone will be achievable. The most viable strategy is likely to be one that reduces the volume of air and road travel (passenger-kilometers) as much as possible, while also asking local businesses—such as hotels, inns, and restaurants—to make further efforts to reduce emissions. Ultimately, the reality may be that businesses and travelers must simply build upon the small steps each can take.

What can be done to reduce carbon dioxide emissions—even slightly—in passenger transportation alone by 2030? Regarding air travel, it is difficult to shift passengers to other modes of transportation except for flights within the 500–700 km range that compete with the Shinkansen. As long as long-distance tourism travel is permitted at pre-COVID levels, we have no choice but to pin our hopes on the introduction of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).As for automobiles, reducing congestion on expressways could improve travel speeds and help curb carbon dioxide emissions, so we would like to see as many people as possible switch to rail or bus.　On the other hand, the reality is that in many tourist destinations, the convenience of getting around the area drops significantly without a car. Therefore, it is essential to vigorously promote a secondary and tertiary transportation service network as “Tourism MaaS.” This involves establishing bus services and shared shuttle services along the main routes for tourist movement within the destination, while simultaneously expanding sharing services for personal mobility devices, bicycles, and electric kick scooters along those routes.Furthermore, by utilizing renewable energy generated in the vicinity of tourist destinations as the power source for these services, we may be able to significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. However, it goes without saying that realizing such a scenario will entail significant costs (especially in the early stages), and we must avoid a situation where the burden on tourists and businesses exceeds acceptable limits. We hope to see policy proposals addressing this challenge, including the introduction of economic incentive schemes by tourism authorities.

On the other hand, achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 appears to be largely determined by national and regional energy policies themselves, leaving little room for the tourism sector to take proactive action.However, while Japan is rich in forest resources that absorb carbon dioxide, according to the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute*9, there appears to be an issue where absorption capacity decreases as trees age. Under conditions of inadequate forest management, this could become a major obstacle to achieving net-zero emissions nationwide, not just within the tourism sector.Actively incorporating forest restoration activities as ecotourism would be highly significant in helping to achieve carbon neutrality.

6. Conclusion

In this paper, I have analyzed the structure of carbon dioxide emissions in Japan’s tourism sector based on publicly available data and identified key challenges that the passenger transport sector, in particular, must address by the target years of 2030 and 2050 for achieving carbon neutrality. While I do not claim to be entirely confident in the content discussed here, I believe I have presented one possible scenario among the many that could be considered.I hope that this opportunity to write this paper will allow me to connect with fellow researchers and practitioners with whom I can discuss this issue further.
 

(References: URLs as of July 10, 2022)

*1 Glasgow Declaration – Climate Action in Tourism

*2 Agency for Natural Resources and Energy: Annual Report on Energy for FY 2021

*3 Tetsuo Shimizu and Seong-hwan In (2015): Estimation of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Japanese and Korean Tourism Industries: Prospects for Mitigation, Journal of Tourism Science, Vol. 8, pp. 71–79.

*4 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism: 6th (FY2015) Survey on Net Passenger Flow on Major Routes, The Actual State of Passenger Flow on Major Routes: Analysis of National Survey Data on Net Passenger Flow on Major Routes

*5 Japan Tourism Agency: Survey on Travel and Tourism Consumption Trends

*6 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism: Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Transportation Sector

*7 Strategic Council for the New Era of the Automobile (2018): Interim Report of the Strategic Council for the New Era of the Automobile

8* Wolff, C. (2021): Ramping up Sustainable Aviation Fuels, presented in the ICAO Pre-Stocktaking Webinars

9* Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute: How to Measure Carbon Absorption by Forests