Tourism Recovery Following a Disaster

The Impact of the Kumamoto Earthquake on Tourism

Images of Kumamoto Castle, with its shachihoko and roof tiles completely fallen off, and the collapsed Aso Shrine became symbols of this earthquake and were broadcast hundreds of times. The restoration of these tourist facilities will likely require a considerable amount of time and funding. While this visible damage was significant, the resulting decline in tourists is also having a major impact on the tourism industry throughout Kyushu. Not only in the tourist destinations of Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures—the epicenters of the quake—but also in regions where the tremors were not as severe, such as Nagasaki and Kagoshima Prefectures, a wave of hotel reservation cancellations began the very day after the initial earthquake. School trips were particularly hard hit. Because key school trip destinations such as Mount Aso and Kumamoto Castle suffered significant damage, many schools that had planned trips to Kyushu changed their destinations to other regions, such as Okinawa and Yamaguchi Prefecture. As a result, even inns and hotels in Nagasaki City and Kagoshima—areas that did not suffer direct damage from the earthquake—experienced a massive wave of cancellations for school trips. Some accommodations have faced cancellations totaling over 10,000 guests, putting them in a serious financial crisis.

In Oita Prefecture, although there have been no major tremors since a relatively large aftershock on April 28, and visitor numbers did pick up slightly during the Golden Week holiday period, the number of tourists since then has been extremely low compared to previous years. Tourism operators in the prefecture are gripped by anxiety, wondering, “When will visitors return?” In particular, small and micro tourism businesses lacking financial resources have already been pushed into a dire cash flow situation and are at a crossroads regarding the survival of their businesses. The impact is also being felt by employees working at these tourism-related companies. Companies facing a management crisis due to a sharp drop in sales are starting with cuts to part-time and temporary staff as a measure to reduce labor costs—their largest expense—and are ultimately being forced to lay off full-time employees.

Reputational Damage and Actual Risk

Tourism is an industry particularly susceptible to reputational damage. In the context of tourism, reputational damage is defined as the situation where, following a disaster in a certain region, many people who hear about it perceive travel to that area as more dangerous or risky than it actually is. Consequently, they refrain from traveling or cancel planned trips, causing the tourism industry to suffer both tangible (economic losses) and intangible (such as a decline in brand image) losses. Furthermore, reputational damage also occurs when surrounding areas of a disaster-stricken region—despite being unaffected in reality—are equated with the affected area, leading to a decline in travelers to those surrounding areas and resulting in losses for the tourism industry.

Therefore, the rapid and accurate dissemination of information is vital for the business continuity of tourism following a disaster. While media reports and online information tend to focus on areas that suffered the most damage, relying solely on this creates the impression among viewers that the entire region has sustained significant damage from the disaster and is in no condition for tourism. However, in reality, even within Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures, there were many districts where there was almost no damage from the earthquake and where tourist facilities and accommodations continued to operate as usual—yet this information fails to reach the public. This is what causes “reputational damage” to the tourism industry.

It is crucial not to confuse rumors with actual risks. In particular, tourist destinations where actual risks exist should absolutely avoid claiming, “This is just reputational damage.” In the case of this earthquake, as of June 1, the Japan Meteorological Agency has warned that Kumamoto and Oita prefectures face “a real risk of aftershocks with a maximum seismic intensity of 6,” indicating that actual risks do exist. Despite this situation, if they were to promote the area with messages like, “There’s no need to worry about earthquakes anymore, so please come to Oita Prefecture without worrying about rumors,” they would immediately face severe criticism from the public. People would ask, “On what basis are you saying that? If a major aftershock occurs as the Japan Meteorological Agency has warned, and you are affected by the disaster while traveling, whose responsibility is it?”

In times like these, the best approach is to convey the facts accurately. For example, the statement, “In Beppu, there have been no earthquakes of magnitude 3 or higher since [date].All tourist facilities and accommodations within Beppu City are operating as usual.” Since this information is factual, there is no problem in actively disseminating it. Upon seeing this information, some people may decide on their own, “Since there’s no longer any worry about earthquakes in Beppu, I’ll go check it out.” However, if this information isn’t disseminated, such market activity is unlikely to emerge.

Tourism Recovery Plan

Currently, in various regions of Kyushu, the private sector, the national government, prefectural governments, and municipal governments are each launching various initiatives to attract visitors in an effort to recover the decline in tourist numbers following the earthquake. However, because these efforts are not sufficiently coordinated, there is a risk that even with the significant effort and money invested in these initiatives, the results will remain sporadic and temporary. What needs to be done is to create a marketing plan for tourism recovery—either for the entire prefecture or for Kyushu as a whole—and ensure its consistent implementation.

The plan must address the 4W1H framework: When, Where, Whom, and What—specifically, when, in which markets, to which target demographics, and which aspects of tourism in each prefecture or Kyushu as a whole will be promoted. It must also address How—that is, through which information channels and in what manner this message will be communicated. At the same time, the plan must outline who will secure the necessary funding and how it will be raised.

The likely problem will be the difficulty in deciding who will coordinate the plan and when it will be formulated. The answer is that whichever organization—whether a prefectural government, the Kyushu Tourism Organization, or a private group like the Kyushu Federation of Economic Organizations—is capable of taking the lead should coordinate the effort. And this must be done as soon as possible. If planning begins only after the declaration that aftershocks have subsided, the recovery of tourism will likely be delayed by another month or two.

In Hong Kong, where tourism was severely hit by SARS in 2003, a global-scale tourism recovery campaign was launched within a week of the World Health Organization declaring the end of the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong, and the city succeeded in restoring tourist numbers to pre-SARS levels within a short period thereafter. This was because a special task force had begun preparations for tourism recovery while the number of SARS patients was still rising and had secured the necessary budget; consequently, immediately after the declaration of the end of the outbreak, they were able to launch a large-scale campaign in accordance with the tourism recovery plan.

Key Points for Tourism Recovery

The key points of the marketing plan for tourism recovery are as follows.

• Most tourist destinations in Kyushu have returned to normal, and it is important to clearly communicate to the market that visiting tourists are enjoying their trips.
• Start with markets and segments that are likely to return after a disaster, and gradually expand marketing to other markets as tourist numbers recover.
• Focus efforts on engaging repeat visitors who have a “special connection” to Kyushu tourism.
• Send a message to customers who have canceled their reservations, assuring them that “XX is safe now” to encourage them to visit.
• Provide reassuring information to customers with current reservations to prevent further drops in future bookings (starting this summer).
• Enhance the credibility of information by communicating the recovery of Kyushu’s tourism through third-party media outlets and travel agencies.
• Create opportunities for travel agency planning and sales staff to see the current situation in the prefecture firsthand.
• Share the experiences of tourists who have actually visited Kyushu with those who are hesitant to visit.
• Position the initiatives of each prefecture and region within the broader framework of Kyushu’s overall tourism recovery efforts.

Preparing for Future Disasters and Crises

Judging from the response to this earthquake, it appears that the preparedness of Kyushu’s prefectures and tourist destinations for tourism crises was not necessarily sufficient. However, there is no doubt that disasters and crises—not limited to earthquakes—that negatively impact tourists and tourism businesses will continue to occur in the future. For Japan, a nation promoting itself as a tourism-oriented country, strengthening preparedness for crises in the tourism sector is a responsibility toward the tourists who visit various parts of the country. Furthermore, making the tourism industry—which has become a major pillar of the economy—more resilient to crises is a major challenge for both the government and the business community.

In Okinawa Prefecture, the Basic Plan for Tourism Crisis Management was formulated in 2014, followed by the Action Plan for Tourism Crisis Management in 2015, and these are currently being rolled out to all municipalities within the prefecture, as well as to tourism-related organizations and businesses. Looking overseas, countries and regions with high dependence on the tourism industry, such as Hawaii, Australia, and Thailand, have established comprehensive tourism crisis management plans and the systems necessary to implement them.

With the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games approaching, tourism is likely to become even more vibrant across Japan. Before then, we must advance our preparations for crises and disasters to make Japan a safer and more secure tourist destination.