Can war ever be good for tourism?

The COVID-19 pandemic has completely transformed our lives, and more than two years have passed since we were forced to endure restrictions on our movements and make sacrifices. As we’ve adapted to numerous health regulations, new work styles, and many other daily routines, we’ve once again demonstrated our ability to find the best ways to cope with any situation and achieve happiness.

Travel is the essence of freedom, and people are constantly seeking it. Let’s take a look at how European tourist destinations are responding to the current situation.

France: Long a global leader as a destination for international tourists, France has already seen a 30–40% increase in travel bookings compared to 2021, with certain segments even showing a 15–20% increase over pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Bookings are being made about a month earlier than last year, and people seem willing to pay more for higher-quality accommodations and services.

Spain: According to the Spanish National Institute of Statistics, in February 2022, the number of international visitors to Spain reached 3.2 million, representing 71% of pre-pandemic levels. Spending reached $3.7 billion, equivalent to 78% of 2019 levels. For the second quarter of 2022, Spain expects the number of international tourists to reach 80% of pre-pandemic levels.The increase from Nordic countries is particularly notable, with bookings from Denmark and Sweden up nearly 40% compared to 2019. This is followed by a 26% increase from Germany and a 13% increase from the United Kingdom. American tourists also appear to be drawn to Spain, with the current number of visitors down only 26% compared to 2019.

Italy: Since 1999, the travel and tourism industry in Italy has accounted for 10–15% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), underscoring its importance. In 2020, the sector suffered losses of over 100 billion euros compared to 2019, with its share of GDP dropping to 7%.The president of Federturismo, Italy’s travel industry association, stated, “The spring and summer of 2022 mark the end of the long tunnel caused by the pandemic, and according to market research, Italy is currently the top destination for tourists from the United States, Germany, and Australia.” Furthermore, regarding the overall outlook, they predict that this year’s tourist numbers will exceed those of 2019, citing as one reason that people want to spend the money they couldn’t use over the past two years on travel this year.

United Kingdom: Being a G7 member does not automatically guarantee a thriving tourism industry. Since the implementation of pandemic-related travel restrictions, the UK has faced significant challenges in the recovery of its tourism sector. However, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) forecasts that the UK tourism industry’s contribution to the economy in 2022 will recover to £192 billion, a 19% decrease compared to 2019.Even better news is that the number of people employed in the tourism sector is estimated to reach 4.3 million, an increase of 70,000 compared to 2019.

Croatia: Before the invasion of Ukraine began, Croatia’s tourism industry was in better shape than it had been in 2019 (pre-COVID). While booking times have slowed since the invasion began, there have been no cancellations. “Last-minute” bookings—meaning those made at the very last moment—were already very popular before, but now there is a growing trend toward even more last-second “last-second” bookings. We will eventually see whether Croatia’s tourism ultimately performs better than it did in 2019.Germany has long been Croatia’s largest market; while it accounted for 40% of the market in 2019, its share rose to 70% in 2021 (as tourists from outside the EU have not yet fully returned).

"Revenge tourism," born as a reaction to two years of travel restrictions, is said to have started with the younger generation venturing abroad, followed by the older generation. Additionally, the pandemic has led to increased demand for outdoor experiences, as restrictions limited opportunities to enjoy nature.

The pandemic swept across the globe, bringing travel to a halt for several months in most countries. Two years later, as vaccination rates rose, governments lifted restrictions, allowing people to travel more freely. Amid this resurgence, the invasion of Ukraine has become a new challenge facing Europe and the world.

As I write this today (April 8, 2022), it has been 44 days since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. I don’t think most people could have imagined that Europe would experience a new war just 30 years after the 1991 Yugoslav War, when the citizens of Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina defended their homelands against the Serbian invasion. The commonalities between the two conflicts are that they both involve aggression from the former communist bloc and are taking place in regions inhabited by Slavic peoples.

It is said that a generation spans 25 to 30 years, but it is unfortunate that a new generation must endure the psychological, physical, material, and economic consequences of war—regardless of their own will. Furthermore, it is regrettable that not only the invaded country but also the people of all neighboring nations will be placed in an undesirable situation for years to come.

Travel is not a necessity; it is a way of life. That is precisely why it has no end.