Travel Trends Forecast for 2026 (January–December)
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JTB has compiled its outlook on travel trends for 2026.
This report estimates trends in travel by Japanese residents for trips of one night or more based on various economic indicators, consumer behavior surveys, transportation and tourism-related data, and questionnaire surveys conducted by the JTB Group. The survey has been conducted continuously since 1969. (Our company is responsible for the research and analysis in this report.)
This report estimates trends in travel by Japanese residents for trips of one night or more based on various economic indicators, consumer behavior surveys, transportation and tourism-related data, and questionnaire surveys conducted by the JTB Group. The survey has been conducted continuously since 1969. (Our company is responsible for the research and analysis in this report.)
Key Findings
- Travel Trends Forecast for 2026The total number of Japanese travelers in 2026 was 322.5 million (98.0% of the previous year)
For domestic travel, the number of travelers was 307 million (97.8% of the previous year), the average expenditure was 52,900 yen (102.9% of the previous year), and total domestic travel spending was 16.23 trillion yen (100.6% of the previous year)
For overseas travel, the number of travelers was 15.5 million (102.6% of the previous year), the average expenditure was 317,200 yen (104.5% of the previous year), and total overseas travel spending was 4.92 trillion yen (107.4% of the previous year)
The number of foreign visitors to Japan was 41.4 million (97.2% of the previous year) - Domestic Travel by Japanese PeopleWith prices and accommodation costs continuing to rise, the average cost per domestic trip is expected to increase further.
While the number of travelers is expected to remain largely unchanged, total spending is projected to rise slightly due to the increase in average spending per person. - Japanese Travel AbroadWith the yen-dollar exchange rate expected to remain around 150 yen, the pace of growth in tourist numbers is projected to slow starting in 2025.
While the trend toward short-haul travel will cause Asia’s share of the market to increase further, there are signs of a partial recovery in long-haul travel as well.
In Asia, too, rising prices and accommodation costs will continue, pushing average spending per visitor even higher. - Inbound international touristsThe post-pandemic surge in demand—driven by the weak yen, Japan’s low price levels, rising income levels in various markets, and the popularity of Japan in Europe, the U.S., and Australia—is expected to level off by 2025
In 2026, the number of visitors to Japan is projected to decline by 2.8% year-on-year due to reduced demand from China and Hong Kong; however, excluding these two markets, the figure is expected to increase by 5.6%. Assuming the decline in visitors from China and Hong Kong does not become permanent, total visitor numbers are expected to return to positive growth from 2027 onward.
