Tourism in Japan 2035: 55 Perspectives
JTB総研メンバー限定記事です
Key Points of the Survey
The Delphi method is a technique for gathering expert opinions and building consensus; it is considered particularly effective for forecasting the future and addressing highly uncertain issues. In this study, to identify key issues regarding the future of tourism in 2035, we conducted a survey of 22 experts and identified 55 perspectives.
Key Points of the Delphi Method:
- Anonymity: Since experts do not know each other’s names, they can express independent opinions without being influenced by others
- Iterative Process: Questions and feedback are repeated multiple times to achieve convergence of opinions
- Collective wisdom: By integrating the knowledge of many experts, more reliable conclusions can be drawn
Key Points of the Results
What Might Happen Over the Next 10 Years Through 2035
Within 3 years:
Disparities in tourism will widen, and reinvestment in tourism will accelerate (16 key points)
4–5 years from now:
Travelers’ values and behaviors will change due to the impact of digitalization (15 key points)
6–7 years from now:
Sustainability will become the foundation for everything(13 Key Points)
8 or more years from now:
Changes in laws and social structures will lead to shifts in business models (11 Key Points)
Examples of Survey Results:
Survey Overview and Contributing Experts:
